Bitcoin (BTC) once again faces a key technical test!

BTC briefly fell below $74,000 on November 9, and closed below the 50-week moving average the previous week, ending a seven-week streak of holding the indicator steady. Based on CoinGecko’s historical high of $126,080, the latest price of BTC is approximately $74,752, with a cumulative retracement of approximately 40.7%. At the same time, more than $1 billion in long orders were liquidated in the cryptocurrency derivatives market, and the spot Bitcoin ETF saw an outflow of approximately $1.28 billion in a single week. The market is focused on whether support can be re-formed near $75,000.

Bitcoin falls below 50-week moving average, retracing more than 40% from all-time highs

Bitcoin closed below its 50-week moving average of around $75,488 at the close of the week ending November 8, about 0.7% below that indicator, ending a seven-week streak of holding above the average since September 20.

according to CoinGecko latest query market price, BTC It was quoted at around $74,752, with a 24-hour price low of around $73,709. Compared with the all-time high of $126,080 set on October 6, 2025, the current decline is approximately 40.7%.

The 50-week moving average is mainly used to observe medium and long-term price trends. This weekly breakdown means that the recent rebound has been challenged, but a single technical indicator is not enough to prove that a new round of bear market has begun.

More than $1 billion in long positions liquidated in the crypto market, and ETH liquidation exceeded BTC

Bitcoin's decline also triggered large-scale forced liquidations in the derivatives market.

According to CoinGlass’ statistical snapshot on November 9, the crypto market recorded a total 24-hour liquidation of approximately $1.15 billion that day, of which long orders accounted for $1.04 billion and short orders accounted for approximately $117 million. ETH-related liquidations exceeded $500 million, and BTC was approximately $309 million. The largest single liquidation came from Binance, with an ETH/USDT long position worth approximately $48.2 million.

Large-scale multi-order liquidation reflects that leveraged traders are subject to severe price fluctuations, which may amplify selling pressure in a short period of time, but it does not mean that prices will inevitably rebound after the liquidation is completed.

Bitcoin ETF saw $1.28 billion in outflows in a single week, institutional buying pressured

Coinciding with the leverage liquidation, there was also an exodus of funds from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs. In the week ending November 6, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a total net outflow of approximately $1.28 billion, the largest weekly outflow since late June.

Among them, BlackRock’s IBIT had a single-day outflow of approximately US$403 million on November 6, becoming one of the largest sources of capital outflows that day. Net outflows were recorded on four of the five trading days from Nov. 2 to Nov. 6, according to Farside Investors. This shows that not only leveraged trading has been liquidated in the market recently, but investment funds holding BTC through ETFs have also decreased.

Galaxy Research Director Alex Thorn: Whether it can get back to the moving average within a month is key

Regarding Bitcoin falling below the 50-week moving average, Galaxy Research Director Alex Thorn believes that this change will directly test his previous thesis that the bear market is over. Galaxy Research published by Thorn on October 26 research report"We believe the market has bottomed and selling pressure is subsiding," he said.

He believed at the time that selling by long-term Bitcoin holders was gradually slowing down and that the risk of currency devaluation could still support long-term investment demand for BTC. However,Thorn also clearly listed the conditions that may overturn the bullish judgment in the report: If Bitcoin falls below the 50-week moving average on a weekly basis and fails to recover within a month, it will weaken its original technical argument.

According to Thorn's latest analysis, during the post-bear market recovery process from 2011 to 2012 and 2019 to 2020, Bitcoin also regained its 50-week moving average and then fell below it again, but it did not set a new bear market low under the weekly closing benchmark. However, he also reminded that historical samples are limited, and whether the market has truly bottomed out can only be confirmed ex post facto.

Can $75,000 hold? Short-term observation: $73,700 to $75,500

Looking at the near-term price structure, $75,000 is not only a psychological level, it is also located near the 50-week moving average.

According to the latest market and technical analysis data, the market can pay attention to three areas:

• $73,700 to $74,000: The recent intraday low area. If it falls below again, short-term buying orders will be tested.
• $75,000 to $75,500: The current area between the price and the 50-week moving average. Whether it regains its footing is an important basis for observing a rebound.
• Around $81,000: Near the 50-day moving average, it may become another technical observation area if the subsequent rebound continues.

These price levels are reference areas calculated based on recent market conditions and are not guaranteed to form support or resistance. For Bitcoin, the focus in the coming weeks will be whether it can regain its 50-week moving average and whether spot ETF inflows resume. If the price continues to hover below $75,000, Galaxy’s original bullish technical thesis will also face a tougher test.

〈Bitcoin falls below 50-week moving average! BTC plummeted more than 40% from its historical high, and long positions of US$1 billion were liquidated. Can US$75,000 be held?〉This article was first published inBlock Guest》.