Online betting on the downfall of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro has highlighted the rapid growth of prediction markets. Users bet on specialized platforms on almost everything. From sporting events to possible military strikes by the Donald Trump administration and even the return of Christ to life. While some make huge profits through these bets, others warn of the humanitarian and geopolitical repercussions of these practices in the real world.

Published on: 02/16/2026 - 19:02

Very few in the world knew what was going to happen in the early hours of January 3 in Venezuela: a top-secret US military operation called Absolute Resolve.

An operation carried out by land, sea and air, lasting about two hours and twenty minutes, and ended with the arrest of President Nicolas Maduro and his wife.

But despite the secrecy of this process, predictions of what was going to happen appeared hours ago on the online forecasting platform Polymarket. This platform, which relies on encrypted digital currencies, allows users to bet on real-life events.

A player named 0x31a56e bet $32,537 on removing Nicolas Maduro before the end of January, even though the odds of this happening on the second day of the same month did not exceed 6.5%.

But by midnight, the hypothesis rose to about 11%, before rising again before the implementation of the American military operation.

This bet at this particular time is very suspicious, but it brought financial profits exceeding 436 thousand dollars in one night, before this account completely evaporated.

This mysterious incident thrust prediction markets, which had been growing rapidly and in the shadows, into the light. On these platforms, users can bet on the results of many future events... for example, who will win the Super Bowl? Or even strange events such as will Christ return in 2026?

These companies confirm that they are not gambling sites, but rather legitimate financial markets ranging from the stock market to encrypted digital currency platforms, although some parties disagree with their opinion.

Confidentiality guaranteed

Two major platforms have emerged in this sector in recent years: Kalshi and Polymarket, which have seen rapid growth. Out of a total trading estimated at $44 billion in 2025 in prediction markets, the two platforms together accounted for $38 billion.

According to Shane Coplan, the young founder of Polymarket, in an interview with the American investigative program "60 Minutes", these transactions should not be confused with opinion polls.

“You make money if you're right, you lose money if you're wrong...and this provides useful information to people,” he said.

There are gamblers who have made huge profits from high-risk bets. Among them is a user named "Domer". He is a former professional poker player. He earned more than $100,000 by predicting the election of an American pope, and then significant profits after nominating J.D. Vance as Donald Trump's vice president.

Even major media outlets like CNN and CNBC have entered into agreements to incorporate Kalshi data into their news coverage.

However, these platforms have not been free from criticism, especially Polymarket due to their reliance on cryptocurrencies and blockchain.

Users like 0x31a56e can make completely anonymous transactions without being traceable. Although luck may explain some cases, analysts believe there is hidden information. But the nature of these platforms makes reaching the truth almost impossible.

For this reason, the Polymarket platform is illegal or difficult to access in most European countries, as some of these countries consider it a form of gambling, while others require licenses.

The Joe Biden administration had previously tightened restrictions on this market before it benefited again from a different regulatory policy during the era of Donald Trump.

"Privatize state secrets?"

Critics of these prediction platforms warn against turning real-world events into financial commodities and encouraging people to bet on wars, politics and diplomacy.

For example, the odds of Venezuelan oppositionist Maria Corina Machado winning the Nobel Peace Prize rose from 3.75% to about 73% in just two hours, after huge bets, which prompted the Norwegian authorities to open an investigation.

Alex Goldenberg, an intelligence analyst and researcher at Rutgers University's Miller Center, warns against replicating some elements of a well-defined mechanism: new accounts with no prior transaction history that take positions hours before certain events occur. This is reminiscent of the method of trading in financial markets based on inside information.

This phenomenon may extend to areas subject to high secrecy, such as military and intelligence operations and diplomatic negotiations. What this means is that “private information” may allow access to confidential information, knowing that the platform does not distinguish between a specialized analyst and someone who just left a secret meeting.

Risks to national security

Experts believe that specific bets on military operations, for example, may provide early warning to some parties or raise doubts within decision-making circles.

Also, making huge bets on military results may cause confusion and affect important strategic decisions. For example, an account, which was called RicoSauve666 and then Rundeep, bet on Israeli military operations, the results of which were very close to reality, which prompted the Israeli Defense Forces and the Shin Bet to open an investigation into this user.

These risks are higher on cryptocurrency-based platforms such as Polymarket, where transactions are completely anonymous.

This prompted several countries, including France, to acknowledge that regulating these platforms was almost impossible, and thus chose to ban them.

The Trump family and cryptocurrencies

There is also controversy over the role of US President Donald Trump Jr.'s son, who serves as an advisor to both Kalshi and Polymarket while his company invested tens of millions in Polymarket in 2025.

The founder of this platform believes that the support of the “pro-innovation and pro-crypto” Trump administration is a positive thing.

He adds: “I am a young businessman. If I can rely on people who believe in what I am doing, who understand things and can help me... then I do not see a problem with that.”

Trump Media & Technology Group, which owns Truth Social, has launched its own prediction platform called Truth Predict.

Alex Goldenlerg raises questions about the nature of the debate at all. Instead of asking, “Should we strike?” In what was considered a moral and strategic question, the question today becomes: “What is the probability that we will strike?”

Consequently, events with real humanitarian consequences turn into financial instruments, a phenomenon worth questioning.

The article was translated into Arabic: Imad Bensaïd. To read the original article, please click here

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